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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capability provided through current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new initiative from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.