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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.

Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."